The Election This Autumn Will Be Like This

Yesterday I met Ulf Kristersson, party leader for Moderaterna, to talk about challenges as an entrepreneur. We were a group of founders there from different companies and we talked a lot about why it’s so difficult to recruit programmers from different countries, why a lot of the risk-capital goes to men and other challenges you face when you grow as a company. All of us entrepreneurs who were thought had different opinions about a lot of things but we all thought that Sweden shouldn’t be a country where there’s a lack of competence, but that’s how it is today. All tech-companies are shouting for programmers but there are too few of those and it’s almost impossible to find people from different countries. You have to stay in Sweden if you really want opportunities for provision but if you have a permanent employment waiting, it’s even trickier. In Nordic Tech House we’ve recruited people from Albania and Singapore which of course is a lot of fun. But it should be an easier process.

Ulf asked us what we think about the political landscape in Sweden and I couldn’t help but to say what I think will happen at the election this autumn. Here are my predictions: I’m convinced that SD will be Sweden’s largest party. But they won’t get a majority vote so it’ll be interesting to see what a government will look like. Maybe with support from M? It’s not something I’m hoping for but that’s how it could be. My advice to the party leader yesterday was to do like Annie. Stand strong when it gets windy. Be a strong visionary and show Sweden what you want the country to look like in 10-15 years instead. The election in autumn is hopeless anyway. The wind with Brexit and Trump is holding on and what we’ll see this autumn is Sweden when SD are the biggest party. Aim for the election is 4-8 years instead. Let SD show was they can go for, let them become established. I think it’s the only way, ride the wave all the way out.

It’s the same in the USA, Trump will probably sit another four years and then you will get tired of the populism and you want to go back to something stable. Besides, if you look from a macro-perspective we’re expecting a depression. Strategically it might be wise to let SD become the biggest during this time. Another prediction I have, which strengthens a boost for M, SD and KD is that we will go towards a more conservative politics again. For my own part, I will vote for the Centre and I’m liberal in my basic views. Of course I want Annie’s party to grow but I unfortunately believe that the liberal wave will have to be paused and give some space for conservatism which will bloom to a wider and young crowd. With regards to timing, it will also fit when there’s a depression on the way. Then you go back to your basic values, family, safety and holding onto what’s Swedish.

So to sum it up: We’re expecting a depression, a conservative politics will get a boost, it will be good for SD and M. SD will be the largest party this autumn. The party whose party leader show the strongest future-vision for Sweden in the long run and stand stable during the SD phase without joining the populist-train will be the winner when the winds change. But it doesn’t matter so much for me that SD are the largest in autumn. That’s how society-cycles work, but the big question will be which other party will take over the torch after SD. That’s where I think the Centre can be strong. Unless a new liberal-conservative party show up during this time, it’s definitely exciting times.

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